Paying for the FILP

This paper examines the financial health of the Fiscal Investment and Loan Program (FILP) as of the end of March 2001. We study the financial conditions of FILP recipients, which include public corporations and local governments. We find many are de facto insolvent. Our estimates suggest as much as 75% of the FILP loans are bad. The expected losses are estimated to be about ¥75 trillion (over 15% of GDP). We also studied the effects of the FILP reform of April 2001, which tries to introduce market discipline in allocation of FILP funds. No significant changes in financial flow are detected, yet. The financial market seems to differentiate the newly introduced FILP agency bonds, which are supposed to without government guarantee, from government guaranteed bonds. It is too early to tell, however, whether the financial market will become an effective monitor of FILP agencies

Japanese Government Debt and Sustainability of Fiscal Policy

We construct quarterly series of the revenues, expenditures, and debt outstanding for Japan from 1980 to 2010, and analyze the sustainability of the fiscal policy. We pursue three approaches to examine the sustainability. First, we calculate the minimum tax rate that stabilizes the debt to GDP ratio given the future government expenditures. Using 2010 as the base year, we find that the government revenue to GDP ratio must rise permanently to 40%-47% (from the current 33%) to stabilize the debt to GDP ratio. Second, we estimate the response of the primary surplus when the debt to GDP ratio increases. We allow the relationship to fluctuate between two “regimes” using a Markov switching model. In both regimes, the primary surplus to GDP ratio fails to respond positively to debt, which suggests the process is explosive. Finally, we estimate a fiscal policy function and a monetary policy function with Markov switching. We find that the fiscal policy is “active” (the tax revenues do not rise when the debt increases) and the monetary policy is “passive” (the interest rate does not react to the inflation rate sufficiently) in both regimes. These results suggest that the current fiscal situation for the Japanese government is not sustainable.

No moderating effect of coping skills on the association between bullying experience and self-esteem: Results from K-CHILD study

IntroductionFew studies have investigated the moderating effect of coping skills on the association between bullying experience and low self-esteem. The aim of this study was to examine whether coping skills have a moderating effect on the association between bullying experience and self-esteem among Japanese students.MethodsData from the population-based Kochi Child Health Impact of Living Difficulty (K-CHILD) study conducted in 2016 were analyzed. Participants included fifth-and eighth-grade students living in Kochi Prefecture, Japan. A questionnaire for the students (n = 5,991) assessed the bullying experience, self-esteem (the Japanese Edition of the Harter’s Perceived Competence Scale for Children), and coping skills that comprised six types (The shortened version of coping skills for elementary school children). Multivariate linear regression analyses were conducted to examine the association between bullying experience and self-esteem and then the moderating effects of six types of coping as interaction terms on the association were considered.ResultsBullying experience was inversely associated with self-esteem. All six types of coping did not moderate the relationship between bullying experience and low self-esteem even after adjusting for cofounders (all P for interaction > 0.15).ConclusionCoping skills did not moderate the association between bullying experience and self-esteem, suggesting that intervention to boost coping skills to mitigate the adverse effect of bullying experience may not be promising

Development of the Intimate Partner Violence During Pregnancy Instrument (IPVPI)

Background: Intimate partner violence (IPV) during pregnancy can lead to negative consequences for both the mother and offspring. Although IPV is recognized as a worldwide public health issue, its prevalence is considered to be underestimated because cases are likely underreported, suggesting that there might be unmeasured IPV. The aim of this study was to develop an instrument to detect IPV in pregnant women.Methods: A total of 6,590 women in Aichi prefecture, Japan, who took part in a 3 or 4 month infant health checkup program, participated in the study. Questionnaires assessing history of IPV during pregnancy (physical abuse and verbal abuse), maternal characteristics, partner's characteristics, and household characteristics were mailed to women before, or distributed at, the checkup. Women returned the questionnaires to the checkup sites or mailed them back to the health centers. A prediction model for history of IPV was then generated using potential risk factors selected based on the literature.Results: Among 6,530 women who responded to either question on IPV during pregnancy (response rate = 67.3%), the rate of participants who experienced any IPV during pregnancy was 11.1% (physical IPV = 1.2%; verbal IPV = 10.8%). Multiple logistic regression analyses showed that maternal age (<25 years old), multiparity, history of artificial abortion, negative feelings when the pregnancy was confirmed (e.g., confused), having no one to provide support during pregnancy, having relationship problems with their partner, paternal smoking during pregnancy, and difficult financial status were associated with any abuse from the partner. Based on the analysis, the Intimate Partner Violence during Pregnancy Instrument (IPVPI) was developed, comprising of eight questions to detect unmeasured IPV in pregnant women, and showed moderate predictive power (area under receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.719, 95% confidence interval: 0.698 to 0.740) ranging from 0 to 16 with a cut-off point of 2 (sensitivity = 79.5%, specificity = 47.1%).Conclusion: The IPVPI, which allows to ask indirect questions rather that asking directly about experience of IPV, might be helpful to detect unmeasured IPV in pregnant women in fields of primary healthcare and obstetrics. Further research longitudinal studies are needed to improve the sensitivity and specificity of the IPVPI

Pathway of the Association Between Child Poverty and Low Self-Esteem: Results From a Population-Based Study of Adolescents in Japan

Child poverty leads to various negative consequences, including low self-esteem, which is a risk factor for mental illness, suicide, or poor academic achievement. However, little is known about why child poverty leads to low self-esteem. We aimed to elucidate the association of child poverty and low self-esteem based on the ecological model, which includes family-level, school-level, and community-level factors. Data were obtained from the Adachi Child Health Impact of Living Difficulty (A-CHILD) study in 2016, and participants included 1,652 children in fourth grade (534 pairs), sixth grade (530 pairs), and eighth grade (588 pairs) living in Adachi City, Tokyo, Japan. A questionnaire survey was implemented to assess child poverty, parental mental health, parental involvement with children, parental social capital by caregivers, and self-esteem and school social capital by children. The structural equation model was applied to elucidate the association between child poverty and low self-esteem, using family-level (parental mental health and parental involvement with children), school-level (school social capital), and community-level (parental social capital) factors. Child poverty was associated with low self-esteem. Child poverty leads to poor parental involvement, which can be indirectly associated with poor parental mental health and poor parental social capital, and poor parental involvement was directly or indirectly associated with low self-esteem through poor school social capital. To mitigate the impact of child poverty on low self-esteem, comprehensive health policies targeting family-level (parental mental health and parental involvement with children), school-level (school social capital), and community-level (parental social capital) factors may be effective